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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$SMTC

Trade-Ideas alert history 19 alerts 2022-09-072025-02-10

⚠ SMALL SAMPLE · 19 alerts only. Statistics may have high variance — interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 www.semtech.com
💰 Market Cap: $12.30B 👥 Employees: 1,920
Semtech Corp is a provider of high-performance semiconductors powering data center networking, Internet of Things ("IoT") connectivity, and cellular infrastructure solutions. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a diverse portfolio of products for commercial applications, addressing the infrastructure, high-end consumer, and industrial end markets. The company operates in four reportable segments: Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless, IoT Systems, and Connected Services. The majority of the company's revenue is earned through the Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless segment. Geographically, the majority of the company's revenue is earned from the Asia Pacific region; the company also operates in North America and Europe.
Total alerts
19
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · EOD
52.6%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · EOD
-0.93%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+3.82%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading SMTC on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 21.1%
Avg Gain: -0.84%
Avg Winner: +1.90%
Avg Loser: -1.57%
Best: +4.29%
Worst: -5.28%
Trades: 4/15

15MIN

Win Rate: 26.3%
Avg Gain: -1.20%
Avg Winner: +2.50%
Avg Loser: -2.72%
Best: +7.34%
Worst: -9.27%
Trades: 5/13

30MIN

Win Rate: 31.6%
Avg Gain: -1.07%
Avg Winner: +3.25%
Avg Loser: -3.07%
Best: +7.56%
Worst: -9.12%
Trades: 6/13

60MIN

Win Rate: 26.3%
Avg Gain: -2.12%
Avg Winner: +2.83%
Avg Loser: -3.89%
Best: +8.53%
Worst: -13.92%
Trades: 5/14

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 52.6%
Avg Gain: -0.93%
Avg Winner: +2.93%
Avg Loser: -5.21%
Best: +5.93%
Worst: -14.42%
Trades: 10/9

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.82%
Best MFE: +11.30%
Avg Time to MFE: 129 min

On average, SMTC alerts reach +3.82% profit potential within 129 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.06%
Worst MAE: -9.25%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.06%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.25:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 19 alerts, SMTC typically reaches +3.82% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 19
Gap Up % 31.6%
Avg Gap -0.34%
Best Gap +0.54%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

How SMTC compares to 58 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
SMTC: -0.84% Sector: -0.04% -0.80%
EOD Gain
SMTC: -0.93% Sector: +13404.08% -13405.01%
Avg MFE
SMTC: +3.82% Sector: +2.71% +1.11%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SMTC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-10 09:26:17 $40.16 -2.34% -3.72% -6.67% -9.04% -6.37% +0.35% -2.27% -0.42% LOSS
2024-12-06 09:29:51 $65.48 -0.20% -0.38% +0.82% +0.76% +0.98% +2.81% -3.79% +0.49% LOSS
2024-11-26 09:27:37 $63.37 -4.99% -5.40% -3.18% -1.77% -0.41% +5.16% -9.25% +0.21% LOSS
2024-08-09 09:29:32 $29.64 -1.00% -0.56% -0.64% -0.49% +2.06% +2.60% -1.48% -0.84% LOSS
2024-06-07 09:27:45 $30.09 -5.28% -2.48% -0.83% +0.30% +3.62% +6.33% -8.54% +0.27% LOSS
2024-06-06 09:29:53 $44.38 +1.60% -5.52% -5.54% -7.66% -14.42% +5.59% -0.96% -0.11% WIN
2024-05-01 09:29:04 $37.2 -0.24% +0.55% +1.21% -1.24% +1.18% +5.08% -2.63% -1.37% LOSS
2024-04-01 09:26:05 $28.58 -0.49% +3.11% +7.21% +3.76% +2.76% +7.91% -2.90% -0.21% LOSS
2024-03-28 09:25:10 $28.2 -3.55% -0.14% -1.38% -1.52% -2.52% +0.85% -3.55% -0.35% LOSS
2024-03-27 09:28:25 $26.3 +0.34% +0.72% +1.81% -1.33% +5.93% +8.06% -1.98% -0.49% WIN
2023-12-07 09:27:00 $18.4 +4.29% +7.34% +7.56% +8.53% +5.54% +11.30% -2.17% +0.54% WIN
2023-10-20 09:29:00 $16.22 -0.06% - +0.86% +0.80% +1.66% +3.98% -2.53% - LOSS
2023-10-19 09:26:00 $16.7 +1.38% -2.40% -5.64% -6.95% -4.31% +2.40% -1.50% -0.42% WIN
2023-09-14 09:28:00 $24.1 -0.48% -0.17% -2.18% -2.57% +4.48% +4.69% -3.73% +0.41% LOSS
2023-06-08 09:26:00 $26.86 -0.95% -9.27% -9.12% -13.92% -12.43% +1.90% -1.82% +0.07% LOSS
2023-03-30 09:25:00 $24.99 -0.28% -1.78% -1.16% -1.52% +1.04% +2.80% -5.72% -1.32% LOSS
2023-03-13 09:27:00 $29.41 -2.14% -1.73% -0.99% -1.80% -0.95% +0.07% -2.21% -1.80% LOSS
2022-10-07 09:25:00 $28.58 -1.26% -1.80% -1.98% -3.60% -4.72% -0.35% -0.35% -0.56% LOSS
2022-09-07 09:25:00 $34.2 -0.34% +0.76% -0.57% -1.08% -0.73% +1.02% -0.67% -0.56% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠ SMTC Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 52.6% win rate, SMTC has -0.93% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve win size or reduce loss size, making SMTC profitable.

🔧 Fix SMTC Risk / Reward →

Why Analyze SMTC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SMTC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SMTC historically offers an average upside of +3.82% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SMTC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.6%, SMTC shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-5.21%) outweigh average wins (+2.93%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: SMTC shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.93%). This suggests SMTC is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.