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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$TOL

Trade-Ideas alert history 6 alerts 2022-05-052024-03-21

⚠ SMALL SAMPLE · 6 alerts only. Statistics may have high variance — interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Toll Brothers, Inc. OPERATIVE BUILDERS (SIC 1531)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jul 08, 1986 🔗 www.tollbrothers.com
💰 Market Cap: $12.73B 👥 Employees: 4,900
Toll Brothers is the leading luxury homebuilder in the United States with an average sale price well above public competitors'. The company operates in over 60 markets across 24 states and caters to move-up, active-adult, and second-homebuyers. Toll Brothers consistently ranks as a top 10 builder within the US according to total home closings. Traditional homebuilding operations represent most of the company's revenue. Toll Brothers also builds luxury for-sale and for-rent properties in urban centers across the US It has its headquarters in Horsham, Pennsylvania.
Total alerts
6
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 30MIN
83.3%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 30MIN
+1.34%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+3.67%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading TOL on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.22%
Avg Winner: +0.25%
Avg Loser: -1.18%
Best: +0.57%
Worst: -1.19%
Trades: 4/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +1.65%
Avg Winner: +2.79%
Avg Loser: -0.64%
Best: +5.73%
Worst: -0.68%
Trades: 4/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 83.3%
Avg Gain: +1.34%
Avg Winner: +1.81%
Avg Loser: -0.98%
Best: +3.98%
Worst: -0.98%
Trades: 5/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 83.3%
Avg Gain: +1.96%
Avg Winner: +2.84%
Avg Loser: -2.44%
Best: +6.55%
Worst: -2.44%
Trades: 5/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 83.3%
Avg Gain: +1.87%
Avg Winner: +3.08%
Avg Loser: -4.18%
Best: +6.37%
Worst: -4.18%
Trades: 5/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.67%
Best MFE: +7.66%
Avg Time to MFE: 153 min

On average, TOL alerts reach +3.67% profit potential within 153 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.87%
Worst MAE: -1.90%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.87%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.24:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.24x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, TOL typically reaches +3.67% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap -0.08%
Best Gap +0.80%

🏭 Sector Comparison: OPERATIVE BUILDERS

How TOL compares to 9 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TOL: -0.22% Sector: +0.15% -0.37%
EOD Gain
TOL: +1.87% Sector: -0.42% +2.29%
Avg MFE
TOL: +3.67% Sector: +2.02% +1.65%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TOL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-21 09:26:29 $125.7 +0.03% +0.61% +0.47% +0.77% +0.66% +1.91% -0.32% +0.31% WIN
2023-08-23 09:27:00 $77.58 +0.05% -0.68% +0.65% +1.56% +1.64% +3.29% -1.65% +0.24% WIN
2023-01-04 09:28:00 $51.0 +0.37% +1.25% +1.15% +0.61% +1.71% +2.14% +0.20% +0.80% WIN
2022-08-24 09:25:00 $44.0 +0.57% +5.73% +3.98% +6.55% +5.05% +7.66% - +0.43% WIN
2022-05-25 09:25:00 $45.21 -1.19% +3.58% +2.79% +4.71% +6.37% +7.12% -1.53% -0.97% LOSS
2022-05-05 09:25:00 $50.0 -1.16% -0.60% -0.98% -2.44% -4.18% -0.10% -1.90% -1.32% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

Beat the 83.3% Baseline on TOL

The 83.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and push TOL's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TOL Strategy →

Why Analyze TOL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TOL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TOL historically offers an average upside of +3.67% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TOL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 83.3%, TOL shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TOL performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.34%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.